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Saturday, 17 January 2026

08:30 29 min read 61 stories65 sources
Dominant Theme

Geopolitical volatility heightens amid Trump's aggressive foreign policy and domestic challenges, while AI investments surge, reshaping energy demand and semiconductor supply chains.

Key Risks

Middle East oil supply disruptions on Iran escalation (oil +10-15%); US federal-state clashes lead to civil unrest; AI worker shortages delay data center buildouts.

Strategic Shifts

China solidifies AI and power grid dominance; US-Taiwan tech alliance strengthens nearshoring; G7 supply chain diversification accelerates amid trade realignments.

Opportunities

Long US defense contractors, oil majors, AI infrastructure; short EM FX; long US housing on 401(k) access; bullish European GLP-1 sector via Novo Nordisk.

I

Executive Briefing

High-conviction signal · 22 stories

What's Driving US Capital Markets Now and Next?2

01Trump Hints at Keeping Hassett at NEC, Boosting Warsh's Fed Chair Odds

President Trump stated he wants to keep National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Comments 'I actually want to keep you where you are,' elevated prospects of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh replacing Jerome Powell on May 15. This prompted 10-year Treasury yields to rise above 4.2% from 4.17% amid concerns over Fed independence from a DOJ probe.

◆Favors higher long-term bond yields and USD strength as markets price in hawkish Warsh leadership, reducing odds of aggressive Fed rate cuts and pressuring treasuries.

02STB Rejects Incomplete $71.5B Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Merger Application

The Surface Transportation Board rejected Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern's $71.5 billion merger application as incomplete (7,000 pages omitted market share, other data). The STB invited revisions by Feb. 17. The move comes amid tightening freight markets, with Cass TL linehaul index up 2.1% y/y in December despite a 7.5% shipment drop.

▼Delays UNP/NSC merger timeline, creating near-term equity overhang while reinforcing rail consolidation rationale amid contracting truck capacity and rising linehaul rates.

What's Driving Non-US Capital Markets?1

03South Korea Sentences Ex-President Yoon to Five Years for Abuse of Power

Seoul Central District Court sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to five years in prison for abuse of power, obstructing justice, and falsifying documents, specifically his short-lived martial law declaration (Dec 3, 2024). This is the first verdict of four trials; prosecutors sought 10 years. Yoon was convicted of deploying presidential security to evade arrest and faking cabinet approval.

▼Deepens political divisions in a G20 semiconductor powerhouse and US ally, elevating risks to policy stability, foreign investment, and regional security dynamics near North Korea.

What Risks Could Disrupt Capital Markets?2

04Trump Escalates Pressure on Fed with Cook Sacking Bid and DOJ Probe on Powell

Trump, accusing Fed Chair Powell of mishandling the economy, moved to sack top Fed policymaker Lisa Cook in August, now challenged at Supreme Court. Powell disclosed a DOJ criminal probe (Sunday) over property renovation cost overruns, which he dismissed. Powell’s term ends May; markets remain muted amid expectations of Fed independence.

▼Undermining Fed independence raises risks of higher inflation expectations and continued dollar weakness, creating headwinds for US Treasuries and global carry trades.

05Edelman Trust Barometer Reveals Collapse in Global Shared Reality

The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer, surveying 37,500 people across 28 countries, shows only 39% get weekly information from differing political sources (down 6 points YoY). Trust declined for national government leaders (-16) and major news organizations (-11) over five years, shifting to neighbors/family/friends/coworkers (+11) and CEOs (+9).

▼Eroding shared facts amid rising fragmentation and AI-driven disinformation risks heightening volatility in global capital markets, policy stability, and investor confidence.

What Are Policymakers Signaling?4

06Trump Admin & Bipartisan Governors Push PJM for $15B Tech-Funded Power Auction to Curb AI Electricity Surge

AI data center demand spiked electricity costs. Trump administration proposes tech firms fund $15 billion in new power plant capacity via PJM emergency auction (15-year contracts, payment regardless of usage). Governors from 13 states, including Pennsylvania's Josh Shapiro, pressure PJM for price reforms. PJM’s response lacked details; Constellation Energy and Vistra stocks dropped.

◆Mixed utility impacts (headwinds for PJM-exposed firms; bullish for natural gas equipment like GE Vernova, NRG Energy); facilitates power expansion for AI data centers, lowering costs for tech buildout.

07Trump to Unveil Plan Allowing 401(k) Withdrawals for Home Down Payments

President Trump will issue a plan next week allowing Americans to tap their 401(k)s for home down payments. A senior White House official indicated complications with putting the money back, potentially involving avoiding a 10% penalty. This is part of Trump’s broader push for affordability initiatives.

◆Likely boosts US housing demand and homebuilder stocks while creating headwinds for retirement savings providers and elevating household leverage risks.

08MAGA Influencers Attack Brian Mast's AI Overwatch Act Over China Chip Sales

Top MAGA influencers Laura Loomer and David Sacks (Trump's top AI adviser) criticized House Foreign Affairs Chair Brian Mast's AI Overwatch Act for undermining presidential authority on AI chip sales to China. Loomer called it 'pro-China sabotage'; Sacks endorsed claims it weakens Trump. Mast responded his job isn't to be a 'yes-man' to Sacks or Nvidia's Jensen Huang.

▼This GOP infighting over AI export regulations creates policy uncertainty for US semiconductor firms like Nvidia, risking delays in China-facing revenue and broader US tech competitiveness.

09US Accuses South Africa Military of Cosying Up to Iran Over Warship Drills

The US accused South Africa's defense ministry of defying President Cyril Ramaphosa's orders to send home Iranian warships participating in China-led 'Peace Resolve' exercises with Brics+ nations. Washington criticized South Africa for inviting Iran amid its crackdown on protests. South Africa's defense ministry launched an inquiry into the 'serious allegations'.

▼Strains US-South Africa relations and highlights deepening Brics+ alignment challenges to Western influence, with risks to Indian Ocean maritime security and global trade routes.

What's Next in AI & Tech?4

10OpenAI to Test Personalized Ads in Free & Go ChatGPT Tiers Amid $115B Cash Burn Projection and $1.4T Infrastructure Plans

OpenAI projects burning $115 billion by 2030, planning $1.4 trillion in data centers/infrastructure. It will test 'Sponsored' ads at bottom of ChatGPT responses for free and $8/month Go tier US users soon. Opt-out and no data sales to advertisers are features. Plus ($20/month), Pro ($200/month), and Enterprise tiers remain ad-free.

▲Validates advertising as viable revenue for high-cost frontier AI, accelerating monetization shifts among competitors, strengthening financial positions, and boosting ad-tech integrations for AI sector sustainability.

11US-Taiwan Trade Deal Cuts Tariffs to 15%, Secures Taiwan's $500B Tech Pledge and TSMC's $165B US Expansion Amid Endless AI Demand

A new US-Taiwan trade deal cut export tariffs from 20% to 15% in exchange for Taiwan's $500B tech investments ($250B companies, $250B guarantees). TSMC purchased 365 hectares in Arizona for Gigafab cluster, committing to $165B US total; capex rising over 30% ($52-56B for 2026). Taiwan Weighted Index rose 1.1% to a record; Micron climbed 8% with CEO citing accelerating AI memory demand.

▲Bullish for US AI semiconductor infrastructure and onshoring, accelerating supply chain diversification from Taiwan amid memory shortages persisting into 2027.

12ASML Hits €450B Record High, Micron Tops $400B on TSMC Earnings & AI Boom

ASML shares rose 7% to a record €450B market cap, becoming Europe's third half-trillion company, surging 25% in 2026 on AI demand, with Morgan Stanley seeing 70% upside. Micron Technology's valuation exceeded $400 billion, weeks after topping $300 billion, driven by investor recognition of AI memory upside and TSMC's strong Q4 earnings.

▲Bullish for semiconductor equipment makers, memory chipmakers, and AI infrastructure stocks as higher foundry/memory capex, HBM demand, and China signal sustained order strength.

13OpenAI Signs $10 Billion Cerebras Chip Deal to Diversify Beyond Nvidia

OpenAI announced a $10 billion agreement with Cerebras to deploy 750 megawatts of AI chips through 2028. This adds to commitments of $100 billion with Nvidia (10 GW), billions with AMD (6 GW), and Broadcom (10 GW custom accelerators), all part of over $1.4 trillion in total infrastructure plans. This comes amid intense competition to Nvidia's dominant position.

◆Diversification pressures Nvidia's monopoly while boosting emerging chipmakers like Cerebras ahead of a potential IPO, driving capex and supply chain shifts in the AI semiconductor sector.

What's Driving Energy, Metals and Commodities?3

14Oil Market On Edge Over Iran-Venezuela Risks as European Gas Surges Toward 30% Weekly Gain

Geopolitical tensions from Iran to Venezuela put oil traders on high alert over the weekend, considered the worst time to let guard down amid these risks. The Dutch TTF gas benchmark climbed toward a nearly 30% weekly gain due to a cold snap and tight inventories. Oil futures posted a fourth straight weekly gain as US strike chances on Iran receded.

▼Heightens volatility risks for energy commodities, with European gas surges pressuring inflation and oil geopolitics threatening supply disruptions.

15Mitsubishi Acquires $7.5B Aethon Shale Gas Assets in Record Japanese US Deal

Mitsubishi Corporation is buying Aethon Energy Management LLC's shale gas production and pipeline assets in Texas and Louisiana for $5.2 billion in equity plus $2.33 billion in debt, totaling $7.53 billion. This marks the biggest purchase by a Japanese company in the American shale sector, strengthening Mitsubishi's natural gas and LNG businesses.

▲Bullish for US natural gas and LNG exporters as Japanese capital inflows bolster supply chains for Asia demand and data center power needs.

16Iranian Regime Massacres Protesters, Charges Families Up to 10,000 Euros for Bullets

Mass protests in Iran, sparked by currency collapse and repression, were violently suppressed. Security forces killed 2,677-3,428 people (human rights groups), imposed internet blackouts, curfews, and demanded families pay thousands of Euros for bullets to retrieve bodies. US signals under Trump indicate a less interventionist stance.

▼Heightened regime brutality amid US signals under Trump increases risks of oil supply disruptions from Iran and broader Middle East geopolitical realignments.

What's Evolving in Digital Finance and Crypto?1

17Coinbase Executive Scuttles Senate Vote on CLARITY Act, Stalling Bitcoin Near $95K

Coinbase asserted its power in Washington by scuttling a planned Senate committee vote on the CLARITY Act, a major cryptocurrency bill. Bitcoin price slipped below $95,000, stalled below $98,000 after touching that level, and traded around $95,500-$95,650 amid profit-taking and policy uncertainty.

◆Creates near-term volatility and headwinds for Bitcoin price, with potential support at $94,000, while boosting altcoins like Dash; regulatory clarity could support digital assets.

What's Impacting Non-Tech Sectors?2

18Novo Nordisk Shares Surge 8% on Solid Wegovy Obesity Pill Launch Data

Novo Nordisk's Wegovy obesity pill, launched Jan. 5, saw a solid start. IQVIA data showed ~3,100 prescriptions filled in its first week (ending Jan. 9); Symphony data indicated 4,290. This outperformed Eli Lilly's Zepbound (1,300-1,900) in comparable periods, boosting Novo's hopes to regain market share. Shares surged more than 8%.

▲Reinforces growth momentum in the GLP-1 obesity drug sector and signals potential fuel efficiency gains for U.S. airlines from lighter passengers.

19Paramount Enlists RedBird's 'Godfather' Gerry Cardinale in $77.9B Hostile Bid Battle for Warner

Paramount has enlisted RedBird’s Gerry Cardinale, known as ‘The Godfather,’ to advise on its hostile $77.9 billion bid for Warner. Cardinale will explain why Paramount's offer is superior to stakeholders, intensifying the M&A battle. This comes amidst an ongoing struggle to acquire Warner Bros.

▼Intensifies M&A pressures in the media and entertainment sector, with risks to Warner Bros. Discovery equity and potential acceleration of industry consolidation.

What's Critical but Overlooked?2

20Trump Administration Equity Stakes Drive 85% Average Stock Surge in Nine Companies

The Trump administration's equity deals with nine companies, mostly publicly traded, saw their shares climb an average of 85% from announcement to yesterday. Intel more than doubled after selling a 9.9% stake last August. Trilogy Metals rose 171%, MEP Materials jumped 122%, underscoring a trend analyzed by Axios.

▲Bullish for U.S. tech, metals, and defense stocks as firms pursue government investments, with potential for ongoing capital rotation into policy-favored sectors.

21BlackRock Warns Worker Shortage Could Derail AI Construction Boom

BlackRock warns that U.S. labor shortages could constrain an estimated $85 trillion global construction boom over 15 years, fueled by AI, onshoring, and infrastructure. Infrastructure jobs are projected to grow 5% over ten years (vs. 3% nationally). Nearly one-fifth of construction workers are over 55; 70% of electrical supervisors are baby boomers nearing retirement, and immigration crackdowns are causing delays.

▼Labor constraints risk delaying AI data centers and infrastructure projects,pressuring construction wages higher and creating bottlenecks for Big Tech's physical expansion.

What's Driving Egypt's Economy, Policy, and Geopolitics?1

22Trump Offers to Restart US Mediation in Egypt-Ethiopia Nile Water Dispute

The long-standing dispute over the Nile River and Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam risks military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. In a Jan 16 letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, U.S. President Donald Trump offered to restart American mediation to resolve Nile water sharing, guaranteeing predictable water releases for downstream nations while allowing Ethiopia to generate electricity.

◆Lowers geopolitical risks for Egypt's water security and economy, bullish for Egyptian assets, Suez Canal stability, and Gulf investment flows into North Africa.

II

Thematic Digest

Wider context · 39 stories

Markets & Macro4

23Stocks Shrug Off Trump’s Actions on Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland

Equity markets have risen despite Trump’s actions: capturing Venezuela's president, threatening Iran, and discussing seizing Greenland. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% YTD, Dow nearly 3%, Nasdaq 1.2%, Stoxx 600 almost 4%, and MSCI AC Asia Pacific over 5% to a record. Investors view these events in isolation without responses from other major powers.

◆Market resilience to isolated geopolitical flare-ups supports continued strength in global equities and a firmer U.S. dollar, but exposes energy/risk assets if Iran escalates.

24Australian Rate Increase Becomes More Likely Than Markets Expect

While the Fed is under pressure for more rate cuts, Australia's central bank faces a different dynamic. An interest rate increase is becoming more likely than markets currently expect, with implications for global currency and fixed-income markets. This signals a divergence in monetary policy from other major economies.

◆Monetary policy divergence likely strengthens the Australian dollar versus the USD and pressures global fixed-income yield curves, impacting carry trades.

25UK Retail Investors Tilt Towards Gilts

UK retail investors are increasingly shifting portfolio allocations to UK government bonds (gilts). This change in retail investment behavior is identified as a significant theme in the Financial Times Markets, examining the underlying factors driving this tilt towards fixed income securities.

▼Elevates demand for UK gilts, likely compressing yields and weighing on UK equities and risk assets, signaling a flight to safety among retail investors.

26Major U.S. Indices Book Weekly Losses as Small Caps Hit Records

U.S. stocks saw a choppy week with healthy economic data boosting the dollar, alongside geopolitical and policy concerns. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq closed lower Friday, booking weekly losses. Small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 finished at records, outperforming the S&P 500 for the 11th straight session.

▼Reinforces small-cap rotation trend, likely bolstering Russell 2000 and pressuring large-cap tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq amid broader market choppiness.

Central Banks & Monetary Policy3

27Fed Governors Jefferson and Bowman Project Cautious Stance on Fragile Labor Market, Well-Positioned Policy for Further Rate Cuts into 2026

The labor market softened (unemployment 4.4% in Dec, private payrolls 30k/month in Q4). Inflation (CPI 2.7%, core CPI 2.6% for Dec) nears 2% post-tariffs. Jefferson expressed cautious optimism; FOMC cut rates 1.75 points since mid-2024, now at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, with $2.2T balance sheet runoff. Both affirmed data-dependent adjustments; Bowman sees more room for rates to fall.

◆Heightens expectations for further data-dependent Fed rate cuts amid employment risks and easing inflation, stabilizing money markets, supporting equities, risk assets, Treasuries, and global carry trades.

28Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Warns of Action Against Excessive Yen Weakness

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the government is ready to intervene against excessive yen movements. The yen has been weakening toward intervention-triggering levels. The currency strengthened after her statement, amid a broader forecast that the dollar could fall against most currencies this year.

◆Verbal intervention threat provides short-term yen support and reinforces bullishness, increasing USD/JPY volatility, pressuring yen carry trades, and impacting Asian currency markets.

29Italy Plans €360B BTP Issuance in 2026 Amid Strong Auction Demand and Bank Hiring Surge

Italy plans €350-365 billion in new BTP emissions for 2026, focusing on retail products, after its January 8 auction saw demand exceed €265 billion for €20 billion offered. Major banks, including Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Bper, and Credem, will hire over 3,300 young workers, and companies are expanding welfare benefits for elderly care.

▲Bolsters Italian sovereign bond attractiveness and banking sector stability amid €1,400 billion European issuance surge, likely supporting narrower BTP-Bund spreads and labor market resilience.

Global Politics & Geopolitics9

30Trump-Netanyahu Second Call on Iran Protests as Pahlavi Urges Intervention Amid Deadly Crackdown and 800+ Halted Executions

Protests across Iran (186 cities) over economic woes evolved into anti-regime demonstrations; crackdown killed ~2,000-3,090, arrested ~20,000, enforced internet blackout. Trump praised halt to 800+ executions. Trump held second call with Netanyahu (2nd in 2 days) on Iran amid strike deliberations; Netanyahu requested delay for Israeli retaliation prep. Exiled Reza Pahlavi urged targeted strikes, economic pressure, Starlink aid.

◆Heightens Middle East escalation risks disrupting oil supply chains, boosting defense assets and energy prices, while opening paths for regime concessions amid US-Iran tensions.

31Trump Appoints Rubio, Blair, Kushner, Witkoff, Banga, Rowan, Gabriel to Gaza 'Board of Peace' Executive Board for Reconstruction Oversight

The US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza entered its second phase, focusing on transitional governance and reconstruction amid $70bn needs. President Trump appointed a seven-member executive board of the 'Board of Peace'—including Marco Rubio, Tony Blair, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, Ajay Banga, Marc Rowan, and Robert Gabriel—to oversee Gaza stabilization. This board supports a 15-member technocratic transitional government.

■Accelerates multinational oversight of $70bn Gaza reconstruction spending on commodities and infrastructure while heightening defense sector exposure to ISF deployment and demilitarization efforts.

32Trump's Greenland Takeover Push Prompts NATO Military Mission, Bipartisan US Reassurances, Tariff Threats, and Russian Scrutiny

Trump insists on acquiring Greenland, threatening tariffs on opposing countries (rejected by Denmark, Greenland, EU NATO). A bipartisan US congressional delegation visits Copenhagen to lower tensions. A 15-soldier Bundeswehr team leads a NATO Arctic security mission with Norway, Sweden, Finland, UK, France, and Netherlands. Russia called the push 'extraordinary,' vowing to monitor.

◆Strains NATO alliance cohesion and heightens US-Russia Arctic tensions, boosting demand for defense capabilities and rare earth minerals extraction, with risks of wider EU-US trade frictions.

33CIA Director Ratcliffe Meets Venezuela Interim Leader Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas as US Advances Oil Deals Post-Maduro Capture

US military seized Nicolás Maduro on Jan 3, installing Delcy Rodríguez as interim president, backed by Trump. CIA Director Ratcliffe met Rodríguez in Caracas, discussing economic collaboration, reforms for foreign oil firms, and ending Venezuela as a adversary safe haven. Energy Secretary Wright plans oil/critical minerals deals. US expanded Chevron's license, brokered $500M oil sale to Qatar, and released political prisoners.

▲Unlocks US access/control of world's largest proven oil reserves ($100bn+ investments), stabilizes/boosts Venezuelan exports for US energy majors/Gulf refineries, enhances energy security, and lowers global prices.

34Russia Escalates Winter Attacks on Ukraine's Energy Grid and Odesa Ports, Causing Blackouts, School Closures, and Export Plunge

Russia intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukraine's energy facilities and Odesa ports, handling 90% of sea exports, amid freezing weather. Hundreds of thousands lack heating; Kyiv has half required electricity. Ukraine meets only 60% of demand; Odesa saw a 45% drop in agricultural exports, forcing school closures and rolling blackouts after 800 air-raid alerts.

▼Escalating energy shortages and Black Sea port disruptions strain European natural gas supplies, global agricultural flows, LNG prices, and NATO defense budgets.

35Canada-China Summit Yields Tariff Cuts on Canola (85%→15%) and EVs (100%→6.1% for 49K Vehicles, Rising to 70K), Plus Strategic Energy Pact Amid Trump Tensions

Canadian PM Mark Carney visited Beijing for a reset with Xi amid Trump's protectionism. China cut canola oil tariffs from 85% to 15% by March 1; Canada slashed EV duties from 100% to 6.1% for 49,000 vehicles annually (rising to ~70,000). The nations signed a strategic partnership and energy pact to diversify trade from the U.S.

◆Boosts Canadian agriculture and energy exports to China while intensifying pressure on North American autos and disrupting USMCA supply chains, accelerating G7 trade realignments.

36US Captures Venezuela's Maduro, Threatens Iran; China Opposes Force and Positions as Alternative

The Trump administration's military operation captured Venezuela's Maduro to face charges and threatened action amid bloody Iranian crackdown. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi opposed force, offering dialogue. Trump warned 25% tariffs on Iran traders like China, which buys most Venezuelan and over 80% of Iranian oil.

◆Accelerates China's diplomatic gains in Global South alliances, undermining US sanctions on key oil suppliers where China purchases over 80% of Iran's shipped oil.

37Syria's Sharaa Declares Kurdish National Language, Grants Rights After Deadly Clashes

Deadly clashes last week in Aleppo between Syrian government forces and Kurdish fighters (23 killed, 150,000 displaced) stalled integration talks. President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared Kurdish a national language, restored citizenship to stateless Kurds, and recognized Nowruz, as 4,000 civilians flee Deir Hafer ahead of army strikes.

▼Reduces immediate escalation risks in SDF-controlled oil-rich northeast Syria but heightens fragility of post-Assad unification, posing headwinds for regional energy stability.

38EU Council Majority Approves Mercosur Trade Pact Despite French Opposition

A majority of EU member states approved the Mercosur free trade agreement, 25 years in the making, to assert Europe's geostrategic position. Opposition came from France, farmers, Poland, Austria, Belgium, Ireland, and some Germans. A European Parliament vote is planned for February or March with a slim 40-vote majority margin.

◆Likely creates headwinds for EU agriculture sectors and French stocks while bullish for Mercosur commodity exports like Brazilian beef and soy, intensifying trade tensions.

US Policy & Regulation3

39DOJ Probes Walz and Frey for Conspiring to Obstruct ICE Amid Minneapolis Raids, Fatal Shooting, and Judge's Limits on Protester Tactics

Trump deployed 3,000 ICE agents to Minneapolis for mass immigration enforcement, arresting 2,500. After an ICE agent fatally shot Renee Nicole Good, protests erupted. Judge Katherine Menendez issued limits on protester tactics. DOJ launched a criminal probe Friday into Gov. Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly conspiring to impede officers, issuing subpoenas after their criticism.

◆Intensifying federal-state clashes and racial profiling lawsuits risk expanded civil unrest, litigation, and political risk premiums, increasing volatility in law enforcement stocks and sanctuary city economies.

40US Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Bayer's Roundup Labeling Lawsuit Appeal

The US Supreme Court agreed to review a Missouri case where Bayer was ordered to pay $1.25 million for failing to warn of cancer risks on Roundup labels, despite EPA approval without such warnings. Bayer, which inherited thousands of glyphosate lawsuits from its 2018 Monsanto acquisition, aims to contain cases by end-2026, reporting 197,000 claims (132,000 settled/dismissed).

◆A favorable ruling would preempt thousands of state claims via federal preemption, lifting Bayer's multi-billion liability overhang and bullish for European agchem stocks.

41Trump Team Alarmed by Poll Erosion on Immigration Amid ICE Raid Chaos

Private GOP polling in late December showed 60% of independent voters and 58% of undecided voters viewing Trump as too focused on deporting illegal immigrants, with 33% seeing him as primarily targeting law-abiding people. Trump's team reviewed this alarming data amid chaotic ICE raids, including a fatal shooting, prompting discussions on recalibrating enforcement tactics.

◆Eroding support among key voter coalitions risks Republican House majority loss in midterms, forcing Trump into lame-duck status and disrupting policy execution on economic priorities.

Emerging Markets4

42Vietnam's To Lam Eyes Presidency as Philippines Faces Marcos-Duterte Clash and France Defence Pact

Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam eyes the presidency at the party congress to consolidate power through anti-corruption. In the Philippines, President Marcos trails VP Sara Duterte by 20 points amid their 'hour of danger' clash. Manila nears a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with France for 'operational intimacy' in contested waters.

▼Intensifies ASEAN political risks, threatening Philippine economic stability and regional trade flows while bolstering Indo-Pacific defense alignments impacting emerging market equities.

43Uganda's Museveni Leads Presidential Vote with 74% as Rival Bobi Wine Abducted by Military

Preliminary results from Uganda’s presidential election show incumbent Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1986, leading with 74-75% from 60-81% of polling stations, ahead of Bobi Wine's 20-23%. Wine alleges fraud and house arrest; his party claims military helicopter abduction and 7-10 supporters killed in clashes. The election faced internet blackouts and repression claims.

▼Heightened post-election violence and opposition suppression risks escalating political instability in Uganda, potentially disrupting East African trade routes and foreign investment flows.

44Kenya Reaches Preliminary Duty-Free Trade Deal with China for 98.2% of Exports

Kenya reached a preliminary 'early harvest' trade deal with China, granting duty-free access to the Chinese market for 98.2% of Kenyan exports (coffee, tea, cut flowers). Announced less than a month after negotiations closed, talks continue for 100% access, aiming to narrow Kenya's long-standing trade gap with China.

◆Boosts Kenyan agricultural exports and narrows trade deficits, while US pressure for AGOA renewal heightens geopolitical trade tensions in emerging African markets.

45Guinea's 2021 Coup Leader Mamadi Doumbouya Poised to Become Civilian President After 87% Election Win

Mamadi Doumbouya, who led a 2021 coup, won 87% of December's election, set to be sworn in as elected president. The 41-year-old former colonel emphasizes resource sovereignty over Guinea's bauxite reserves and Simandou's iron ore, amid criticism of banned parties and missing activists, shifting his image from military to civilian leader.

▼Resource nationalism in Guinea pressures foreign firms like Rio Tinto and Chinese miners, potentially disrupting global iron ore supply while directing revenues to local infrastructure.

AI & Digital Infrastructure4

46California AG Issues xAI Cease-and-Desist Over Grok Deepfakes; Mother of Musk's Child Sues for Exploitative Images

California AG Rob Bonta sent xAI a cease-and-desist letter to stop Grok from producing deepfake nonconsensual intimate images, demanding proof within five days. Separately, Ashley St. Clair, mother of Elon Musk's son, sued xAI over Grok-generated deepfakes including her at age 14 in a bikini and adult sexualized images with swastikas. X initially cited no policy violations.

▼Escalating global regulatory scrutiny and lawsuits over AI-generated nonconsensual deepfakes heighten compliance costs, operational restrictions, and liability risks for xAI and image-gen AI firms.

47WSJ Warns Data Centers Must Include Power Plant Costs Amid AI's Quadrupling Energy Demand

The WSJ argues data center cost calculations exclude dedicated power infrastructure, saying 'The cost of creating a data center should also include the cost of creating its own, discrete, power plant.' This is to meet massive electricity needs unaddressed by the grid, as global AI data center electricity demand is projected to more than quadruple by 2030.

▲Raises capex hurdles for AI hyperscalers/data center developers, elevating scrutiny on surging power needs, bullish for independent power producers, modular reactors, and grid infrastructure firms.

48EPA Rules xAI's Natural Gas Turbines in Memphis Were Illegally Used Without Permits

The EPA ruled that xAI illegally operated up to 35 natural gas turbines at its Memphis data center without required Clean Air Act permits. xAI exploited a loophole by classifying them as 'non-road engines.' Only 15 turbines were permitted by Shelby County, with 12 currently powering the Colossus facility amidst local pollution complaints.

▼Creates regulatory headwinds for xAI's data center expansion and AI infrastructure buildout, raising costs and delays for high-power AI training facilities.

49Anthropic's Claude Code Enables Non-Coders to Build Micro Apps; Runpod Hits $120M ARR

Anthropic's Claude Code allows AI to edit codebases and run tests, available on Pro plans. Claude Cowork applies this to personal files. Runpod, an AI cloud platform launched via Reddit, reached $120M ARR, serving 500,000 developers including OpenAI and Perplexity. These AI models' advances enable non-coders to create micro apps autonomously.

▲Bullish for AI infrastructure and cloud providers amid rising demand for agentic tools, with potential white-collar job displacement in software and remote work sectors.

Energy, Commodities & Metals3

50Judges Rule Virginia $11.2B Offshore Wind (70% Complete) and Empire Wind Off Long Island Can Proceed

A judge permitted construction to continue on the $11.2 billion Virginia Coastal Offshore Wind Project, 70% complete, resolving legal challenges. Separately, a federal judge ruled the Empire Wind project off Long Island can resume construction, rejecting Trump administration delays that would cause 'irreparable harm.'

▲Bolsters US offshore wind sector momentum, clearing key hurdles, supporting renewable developers, project timelines, supply chains, and reducing regulatory uncertainty for clean energy.

51Investors Bet Halliburton, Rivals Will Gain First from Venezuela Oil Production Ramp-Up

Venezuela is set to step up its oil production. Investors anticipate Halliburton and other oil-field services firms will capture early returns from increased oil production efforts in Venezuela. These companies are poised to re-enter the market to support the new regime’s production goals.

▲Positions oil-field services firms for revenue gains, supporting broader energy sector recovery tied to Venezuelan supply increases and global energy stability.

52Comex Gold Ends Week 2.18% Higher at $4588.40 Amid Abating Geopolitical Risks

Comex gold ended the week 2.18% higher at $4588.40 per ounce. However, it edged lower in the early Asian session as geopolitical risks abated, according to Kudotrade. This slight easing in tensions tempered immediate safe-haven demand for the precious metal after its recent gains.

◆Easing safe-haven demand likely caps gold's upside momentum, favoring risk-on flows into equities and supporting USD strength in a less volatile market environment.

Corporate, M&A & Deals4

53Trump Buys Up to $1M in Netflix and Warner Bros. Bonds Days After $83B Merger Announcement

Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced an $83 billion merger on Dec 5. A White House disclosure revealed President Trump purchased two tranches of Netflix bonds and two tranches of Warner Bros. Discovery bonds, each valued $250,001-$500,000, on Dec 12 and 16. Trump stated he will be involved in regulatory approval, amid nearly 200 transactions exceeding $100 million.

■Potential conflicts of interest from presidential investments could influence regulatory outcomes for media mergers, creating uncertainty for Netflix, WBD, and rival Paramount bids in entertainment.

54PNC and M&T Banks Post Q4 Profit Gains on Loan Growth and Net Interest Income

PNC and M&T Bank reported higher fourth-quarter profits. PNC's earnings were driven by loan growth and increased demand for financial services. M&T's profit was boosted by growth in net interest income and net interest margin. Raymond James raised its price target for PNC Financial to $245 based on a strong outlook for regional banks.

▲Positive earnings from regional banks signal resilience in net interest margins, providing tailwinds for US regional bank equities amid continued loan growth.

55Saks Bankruptcy Triggers Rift with Amazon as Walmart Overhauls Leadership

Saks department store's bankruptcy created a bitter rift with Amazon over its luxury retail investment, casting doubt on one of Amazon's biggest bets. Meanwhile, Walmart is reshaping its leadership team, elevating longtime executives. John Furner will take over as CEO next month. Wolfe Research reiterated its Outperform rating on Walmart stock.

■Introduces uncertainty for Amazon's luxury retail partnerships while signaling operational continuity at Walmart, with potential impacts on US retail sector valuations and stock divergence.

56Porsche Deliveries Drop 10% in 2025 on China Luxury Slump and Model Cuts

Porsche reported a 10% drop in vehicle deliveries for 2025 due to weakened luxury demand in China and the end of production for its 718 Boxster and Cayman models. Shares plunged to €42.35, lowest since Nov 2021, and 61% off all-time high. Tesla shares slipped on profit-taking ahead of Q4 earnings.

▼Bearish for European luxury automaker equities with China exposure, heightening sector margin and volume pressures due to regional economic slowdowns and model portfolio shifts.

Entertainment & Sports4

58Venus Williams Set to Become Oldest Player Ever in Australian Open Women's Singles at Age 45

Venus Williams, 45, received a wild-card entry to her first Australian Open in five years. Ranked 576, she faces No. 68 Olga Danilovic Sunday and could meet No. 3 Coco Gauff next. Previews highlight Alcaraz-Sinner rivalry, defending champions Sinner and Keys, Sabalenka's form, and Bencic's top-10 comeback.

■Amplifies global viewership and betting volumes for tennis majors, with potential volatility in sports media stocks and endorsement values for veteran athletes.

59No. 1 Indiana Meets Miami's $30M Roster in College Football National Championship

Top-ranked Indiana, transformed by rock star John Mellencamp, faces Miami's $30 million roster in Monday night's national championship. Miami's roster, valued at $30 million, almost brought down the program. Meanwhile, basketball game-fixing expands to 17 U.S. colleges and China's pro league, implicating over three dozen players. Italy struggles to complete its Olympic ice rink.

◆Advances the commercialization of college athletics via NIL valuations, boosting sports media and broadcasting revenues while heightening gambling sector risks from integrity scandals.

60Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker to Record $240M Deal Amid Work Stoppage Threat

The two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers signed outfielder Kyle Tucker to a $240 million contract, making him the highest-paid player in baseball history. This record deal comes amid the looming threat of a work stoppage in Major League Baseball, signaling heightened labor tensions.

▼Elevates Dodgers' competitive edge and underscores rising player compensation trends, potentially straining MLB luxury tax compliance and influencing labor negotiations.

61British Ice Dancers Fear & Gibson Take Second at Euros While Gibson Calls for Same-Sex Pairs

British ice dancers Lilah Fear and Lewis Gibson are second after a season-best 85.47 score in the European Championships rhythm dance. Gibson called for the International Skating Union to allow same-sex partnerships internationally, following new rules in Canada and Finland, to increase diversity and opportunities in the sport.

▲Heightens visibility for figure skating and GB winter sports achievements, supporting growth in entertainment and sports sponsorship sectors by advocating for diversity.